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spacer Past Present and Future Change in the
spacer Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
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International Science Meeting
spacer 12-15 July 2011, Bristol, U.K.
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Programme

Programme for printing:


  Tuesday 12th July Wednesday 13th July

Thursday 14th July

Friday 15th July Poster session 1 Poster session 2

 
Tuesday 12th July

11:00

Registration

14:00

Science Meeting Opening
David Anderson Chair, RAPID Programme Advisory Group
14:10

Theme 1. What do we know about present and past changes in the AMOC on seasonal to millennial time scales?
Chair: David Anderson
14:10

Stuart Cunningham: Meridional overturning circulation and heat flux array at 26.5°N: Variability observed at periods of minutes to years during the period from April 2004 to April 2009.   Invited talk.   View abstract and download presentation
14:50

Torsten Kanzow: Observed and simulated large-amplitude fluctuations of deep meridional volume transports in the subtropical North Atlantic   View abstract and download presentation
15:10

Matthias Lankhorst: 10 years of continuous observations by the MOVE array
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15:30

TEA / COFFEE
16:00

Theme 1 continues.   Chair: Bill Johns
16:00

Eleanor Frajka-Williams: Covariability of the Gulf Stream with deep return flow at 26°N in 2009, from the RAPID transatlantic moored array   Abstract
16:20

Shane Elipot: Latitudinal coherence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from moored array observations
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16:40

Igor Yashayaev: Variability in the Production and Properties of Deep Western Boundary Flows in the Labrador Sea and Downstream   Abstract
17:00

Jonathan Bamber: Recent large increases in freshwater fluxes from Greenland into the North Atlantic   Abstract
17:20

Arne Biastoch: The Importance of considering Agulhas Leakage for the Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation   View abstract and download presentation [Password-restricted to meeting participants]
18:00

Ice breaker: Wine reception in the poster area
 

 
Wednesday 13th July

09:00

Theme 1 continues.   Chair: Richard Wood
09:00

Jean Lynch-Stieglitz: Ocean Circulation Response to Glacial Aged Heinrich Events. Invited talk
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09:40

Claude Hillaire-Marcel: The AMOC slow-down during the Younger Dryas - Deep-sea core evidence from Lomonosov Ridge for a contemporaneous drainage even in the NW Laurentide Ice-sheet area.
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10:00

Juliette Mignot: Volcanic impact on the Atlantic ocean circulation over the last millennium.
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10:20

Babette Hoogakker: Changes in Holocene North Atlantic Deep Water flow and properties.
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10:40

TEA / COFFEE
11:10

Theme 1 continues.   Chair: Pascale Lherminier
11:10

Paola Moffa Sanchez: Centennial to decadal-scale ocean changes in the North Atlantic during the Late Holocene.
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11:30

James Scourse: AMOC variability during the Last Millennium
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11:50

Martha Buckley: Decadal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
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12:10

Camille Marini: On the links between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
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12:30

Claus Böning: Manifestation of multi-decadal AMOC changes in the transport of the Florida Current
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12:50

LUNCH
14:00

Themes 1 and 2 poster presentations
Coffee will be available during the poster session. Posters will remain on display for the duration of the meeting. Poster presenters from themes 1-2 will be on hand to explain their posters during this session. List of Session 1 posters.
16:00

Theme 1 continues.   Chair: Tong Lee
16:00

Johanna Baehr: Predictability of the meridional heat transport. Invited talk
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16:40

Will Hobbs: Estimates of 21st century North Atlantic heat transport from satellite and drifter data
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17:00

Herle Mercier: Variability of the circulation and heat transport from six occupations of the A25 Greenland-Portugal OVIDE section between 1997 and 2010   Abstract
17:20

Bogi Hansen: Why does the AMOC cross the Greenland-Scotland Ridge?   View abstract and download presentation
17:40

Kerstin Jochumsen: Hydrographic and overflow variability in Denmark Strait
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18:00

Day 2 close
20:00

CONFERENCE DINNER
After Dinner Speaker: David Buckland: Art and Climate Change
 

 
Thursday 14th July

09:00

Theme 2: How does the AMOC influence ocean, atmosphere and terrestrial climate and ecosystems?
Chair: Paul Williams
09:00

Sirpa Häkkinen: Wind stress curl and Atlantic Multi-decadal Ocean Variability.   Invited talk
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09:40

Doug Smith: Decadal predictions of the Atlantic overturning circulation and tropical Atlantic atmosphere
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10:00

Yochanan Kushnir: Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the GFDL CM2.1 model and relevance to the real world
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10:20

Lesley Allison: Mechanisms and impacts of decadal-scale AMOC fluctuation events in unforced AOGCM simulations
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10:40

TEA / COFFEE
11:10

Theme 2 continues.   Chair: Kathryn Kelly
11:10

Tim Woollings: Ocean overturning and the Atlantic storm track response to climate change.   Invited talk   Abstract
11:50

Julie Deshayes: Model inter-comparison study of variability in AMOC and freshwater content in the North Atlantic   Abstract
12:10

Elaine McDonagh: Oceanic Freshwater flux at 26°N in the Atlantic
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12:30

Mojib Latif: Understanding simulated long-term changes in the North Atlantic MOC.
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12:50

LUNCH
14:00

Theme 3: How will the AMOC change over the next few decades and over the 21st century?
Chair: Chris Meinen
14:00

Tony Rosati: Challenges in Predicting AMOC Variability in the Next Decade.   Invited talk   View abstract
14:40

C. Roberto Mechoso: Response of the Sea Level and the MOC in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Greenland Ice Melting.
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15:00

Paola Cessi: The adiabatic pole-to-pole overturning circulation.   View abstract and download presentation
15:20

Themes 3 - 4 and other poster presentations
Coffee will be available during the poster session. Posters will remain on display for the duration of the meeting. Poster presenters from themes 1-2 will be on hand to explain their posters during this session. List of Session 2 posters.
16:50

Theme 3 continues.     Chair: David Marshall
16:50

Henk Dijkstra: Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation   Invited talk
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17:30

Harry L. Bryden: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation exports freshwater southwards   Abstract
17:50

Ed Hawkins: Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport
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18:10

Sybren Drijfhout: The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates
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18:30

Day 3 close
 

 
Friday 15th July

09:00

Theme 3 continues.     Chair: Meric Srokosz
09:00

Rowan Sutton: Predicting the future of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.   Invited talk
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09:40

Gokhan Danabasoglu: AMOC variability and prediction studies in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)
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10:00

Holger Pohlmann: Skillful predictions of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system   View abstract and download presentation
10:20

Rym Msadek: Decadal predictability of the AMOC: model results and challenges
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10:40

TEA / COFFEE
11:10

Theme 4: Outlook and Challenges
Chair: Meric Srokosz
11:10

Susan Lozier: Linking deep water formation to AMOC variability: a review, a challenge and a plan.   Invited talk
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11:50

Rong Zhang: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Adjustment to an Abrupt Change in the Nordic Sea Overflow in a High Resolution Global Coupled Climate Model   View abstract and download presentation
12:10

Thomas Rossby: Monitoring ocean mass and heat transport with ADCPs on commercial vessels
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12:30

Jochem Marotzke: The Next Ten Years of AMOC Observations at 26.5 °N - 2014 to 2024   Invited talk
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13:10

Closing notes
13:20

LUNCH
14:00

Meeting closes
 

Poster presentations Wednesday 13th July, 14:00 - 16:00

Theme 1

Jin Ba: North Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability simulated in CGCMs  Poster A2
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Barbara Berx: Variability of physical and biological properties in the Faroe Shetland Channel between 2000-2009: results from a long-term monitoring programme and model data  Poster A3   View abstract and download poster [Password-restricted to meeting participants]

Michael Brüdgam: The Ability of the Adjoint Method to recover a decadal AMOC Variability  Poster A4
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Paul Butler: The mollusc Arctica islandica: an annually resolved and precisely dated proxy archive of Atlantic water variability during the past millennium  Poster A5   View abstract and download poster. [Restricted: please contact author for password]

Andrea Cimatoribus: Freshwater control of AMOC: collapsing the AMOC by changing evaporation and precipitation in the southern hemisphere  Poster A6   View abstracts and download poster

Nathalie Daniault: Variability of the East Greenland Current-Irminger Current (EGIC) transport at the South east tip of Greenland  Poster A7
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Entcho Demirov: A model study of the Labrador Sea Water production, pathways and transit times   Poster A8   Abstract

Alexey Fedorov: Optimal initial perturbations for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Poster A9   Abstract

Geoffrey Gebbie: The "inter-gyre gyre" in ocean data assimilation products  Poster A10   Abstract

Mattias Green: The impact of a collapsing ice-sheet on the meridional overturning circulation during Marine Isotope Stage 6  Poster A11
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Jeremy P. Grist: On the Variability of the Surface-Forced Component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from 1958-2010  Poster A12   Abstract

Joel Hirschi: Chaotic variability of the meridional overturning circulation on subannual to interannual timescales  Poster A13   Abstract

Alan Iwi: Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation  Poster A14   Abstract

Laura Jackson: Multidecadal variability of the MOC: HadCM3 and a perturbed physics ensemble   Poster A15
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Young-Heon Jo: Sea Level Trends in Different Time and Spatial Scales Associated with AMOC in the North Atlantic   Poster A16
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Kathryn A. Kelly: Estimates of Heat Transport Convergence and Ocean Mass Anomalies from Observations and a Simple Model  Poster A17   Abstract

Anna L. Kloss: Vertical distribution of deep and intermediate water masses in the Southeast Atlantic (23°S) during the Last Glacial Maximum. Poster A19   View abstract and download poster [Password-restricted to meeting participants]

Yochanan Kushnir: The Dead Sea lake record during the Holocene: evidence of AMOC influence on centennial to millennial time scales. Poster A20   View abstract and download poster

Christopher S. Meinen: Variability of the Deep Western Boundary Current at 26.5°N. Poster A21
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Juliette Mignot: Seasonal AMOC variability in a climate model. Poster A22
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Sandrine Mulet: A new estimate of the 3D circulation in the Atlantic Ocean from altimetry, SST and in-situ measurements  Poster A24
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Paul Myers: Historical Variability in the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, with possible consequences to the MOC  Poster A25
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Helen Pillar: Momentum Balance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation  Poster A27
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David Reynolds: Coherent tree ring and shell increment chronologies reconstruct North Atlantic climate dynamics  Poster A28   Abstract

Peter Rhines: AMOC and Watermass Transformation  Poster A29   View abstract and download poster

Zoltan Szuts: Calibrating the Florida Straits submarine cable for salinity transport  Poster A31   View abstract and download poster

David Thornalley: The deglacial evolution of North Atlantic Convection  Poster A32   Abstract

Rainer Zantopp: Toward a synthesis of overflow transports in the Labrador Sea: The Outflow at 53°N. Poster A33
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Dongxiao Zhang: Multidecadal Variability of the AMOC in the Tropical Atlantic  Poster A34
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Erik van Sebille: Propagation pathways of classical Labrador Sea Water from its source region to 26°N. Poster A35   Abstract

Svein Østerhus: Long-term variations in the North Atlantic Nordic seas overturning circulation  Poster A36   Abstract

 
Theme 2

Beena Balan Sarojini: Atlantic MOC Variability - Results from a model intercomparison study. Additional Poster
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Dan Hodson: The impact of Model Resolution on MOC adjustment in a Coupled Climate Model. Poster B1   Abstract

Salil Mahajan: Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic Surface Air Temperature and Sea-Ice Variability  Poster B2   View abstract and download poster

Alex Megann: The sensitivity of precipitation changes in the Amazon region under global warming to the choice of ocean component  Poster B3   Abstract

Matt Palmer: The importance of oceanic heat re-distribution in estimating Earth's radiation balance  Poster B6
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Luke Sheldon: Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Content Change in the North Atlantic  Poster B8   Abstract

Craig Wallace: Downscaling Precipitation for the United Kingdom in an AMOC-collapse scenario.  Poster B9
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Christoph Welker: Decadal-scale variability of extratropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin - a project outline  Poster B10
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Neil Wells: Meridional Overturning circulation at 26N and the North Atlantic heat COntent (MONACO)   Poster B11
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Xiaoming Zhai: A Model of Atlantic Heat Content and Sea Level Change in Response to Thermohaline Forcing   Poster B12   Abstract

 

Poster presentations Thursday 14th July, 15:20 - 17:50

Theme 3

Erik Behrens: Can eddies affect the freshwater distribution and the reaction of the MOC in Greenland melting scenarios?  Poster C1
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Peter Challenor: Estimating the Risk of the Collapse of the Meridional Overturning Circulation - The RAPIT Project  Poster C2
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Jürgen Kröger: Impact of Different Ocean Reanalyses on Decadal Climate Prediction   Poster C3
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Salil Mahajan: Predicting Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variations Using Subsurface and Surface Fingerprints
Poster C4   View abstract and download poster

Daniela Matei: Interannual predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N   Poster C5   Abstract

Chris Roberts: Detecting changes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Hadley Centre climate models. Poster C6
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Jose Rodriguez: A traceable hierarchy of models to identify MOC thresholds  Poster C7
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Matthew Thomas: Impacts of a reduced Meridional Overturning Circulation on the upper ocean circulation in the Atlantic  Poster C8   Abstract

Daniel Williamson: Beyond Scenario Analysis: Studying 21st Century AMOC Behaviour Under Infinitely Many Feasible Forcing Futures   Poster C9   Abstract

Bert Wouters: Decadal forecast experiments in the North-Atlantic with the EC-EARTH model  Poster C10
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Theme 4

Chris W. Hughes: Drift-free measurements of pressure differences on the continental slope: Demonstration of a method which generalizes hydrostatic balance and thermal wind to sloping boundaries   Poster D1   View abstract and download poster

 
Other posters

Lesley Allison: Feedback mechanisms associated with AMOC bistability in an AOGCM  Poster E1
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Nicolas Barrier: A basin-scale statistical-dynamical downscaling to estimate the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to climate change   Poster E2   Abstract

Michael J. Bell: A two-layer planetary geostrophic model of Meridional Overturning Circulations   Poster E3
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Adam Blaker: The impact of inertia-gravity waves on the MOC in a high resolution ocean model  Poster E4
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Andreas Born: Dynamics of decadal variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre: a stochastically forced oscillator  Poster E5   Abstract

Louis Clement: The signature of westward propagating anomalies on the MOC  Poster E6
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Shenfu Dong: Importance of the Argo Float Measurements in Assimilating Meridional Overturning Circulation in the South Atlantic  Poster E7   Abstract

Silvia L. Garzoli: Deep Western Boundary Current variability and signal attribution in the North Atlantic  Poster E8   Abstract

Leon Hermanson: Indirectly assimilating Atlantic 26°N transport into the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System  Poster E9
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Robin McCandliss: The RAPID & RAPID-WATCH Data Archive  Poster E10   Abstract

Jennifer Mecking: North Atlantic Oscillation Forced Ocean Variability Simulated by NEMO  Poster E11   Abstract

Matthew Menary: Understanding past and future changes in the AMOC in the state-of-the-art climate model, HadGEM2-ES  Poster E12   Abstract

Darren Rayner: The Current Status of the RAPID-MOC 26˚N Mooring Array  Poster E13   View abstract and download poster

Monika Rhein: Observations of AMOC relevant circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic  Poster E14   Abstract

Jon Robson: Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990s  Poster E15   Abstract

Vassil M. Roussenov: North Atlantic gyre-scale property changes and MOC variability over the last 60 years  Poster E16
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Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Multistability of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and its stochastic resonance to Agulhas leakage variance  Poster E17
Abstract

Amrita Shravat: Can ocean re-analysis output reproduce the observed overturning circulation near the regions of deep convection in the North Atlantic?   Poster E18   View abstract and download poster [Password-restricted to meeting participants]

Vladimir Stepanov: RAPID data assimilation experiments and some preliminary analysis of the model results  Poster E19   Abstract

Laure Zanna: Low-frequency variability and forecast skill of observed North Atlantic sea surface temperatures   Poster E20
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Matthijs den Toom: Effect of Atmospheric Feedbacks on the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation  Poster E21   Abstract

Svein Österhus: Thermohaline Overturning - at Risk?  Poster E22   Abstract

 
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